Another
Tiananman Square
By JONATHAN POWER
LONDON-- There is not going to be another Tiananman
Square in Hong Kong. The Chinese communists' ruling cadre
may have little natural empathy for Hong Kong's political
freedom but they know, whatever protests meet them after the
July 1st. hand-over by Britain, that a violent clamp-down of
such proportions would alienate the western world in a
manner that could not be so easily repaired as it was after
the events of June 4, 1989.
If Presidents Bill Clinton and Jacques Chirac or
Chancellor Helmut Kohl then chose to continue to be as
accommodating to China's interests as they are now they
would be overwhelmingly overruled by both public opinion and
their legislatures.
The Beijing authorities are shrewd enough to know that,
while the student protestors of Tiananman Square were naive
enough to think their own mass could somehow defy and
triumph over their government to the extent that they
pointedly refused to accept support from workers' movements,
the democratws of Hong Kong are a much more sophisticated
bunch. Not only in Martin Lee's Democratic Party, the
largest party in Hong Kong's elected legislature, do they
have a democratic mandate, they represent a broad coalition
of interest groups, of which students are only a
minority.
If a second Tiananman Square is most unlikely there is,
however, undoubtedly going to be a real tussle for
power.
I doubt in his wildest dreams that Governor Chris Patten
ever thought that the Chinese would simply swallow his
democratic and human rights reforms. But what he knew he was
doing--and what he has succeeded in doing--was to empower
the Hong Kong people. They now have to fight their own wars.
Neither Chris Patten, nor Margaret Thatcher, nor Tony Blair
nor Madeleine Albright nor any of the other notables who
plan to be on Hong Kong on the last day of the month to
watch the Union Jack run down can fight it for them.
Anything short of a repeat Tiananman Square they are
effectively on their own, apart from the odd shout of
encouragement from the bleachers.
This middle terrain--between total repression and total
capitulation--is going to be the battle ground. And who can
at the moment predict with absolute certainty where, over
what, the battles will be fought and who, in the end, will
prevail
Nevertheless, the signs, on balance, are propitious. The
early show of toughness by governor-elect Tung Chee-hwa has
already been softened. After announcing that he planned to
give the police stronger powers to curb public protests and
to impose a ban on the solicitation of campaign
contributions from overseas he was forced to tone down the
proposals in the face of loud local criticism. He also moved
to occupy the high ground by announcing that the formidable
number two to Chris Patten, Mrs. Anson Chan, would stay on
as his deputy. He then appointed as Chief Justice the
relatively young, very democratically minded, Andrew Li
Kwok-nang.
If it weren't for the ominous presence of the shadow
legislature that meets over the border in China every
Saturday morning one could read these tea-leaves with a
great deal of hope. After all Li Ruihuin, nothing less than
a Beijing politburo member, not so long ago publically
counselled his colleagues (I paraphrase) "not to clean the
Hong Kong teapot, otherwise it wouldn't make such good
tea."
But the shadow, unelected, legislature is the rub. At one
minute past midnight on July 1 there will be two competing
legislatures in existence--this Chinese nominat4ed one and
Hong Kong's duly elected one.
The issue will not be whose interpretation of the 1984
Joint Declaration on Hong Kong with its "one country, two
systems pledge" is right. There is no outside neutral
arbitrator to intervene and pronounce on that, although
there has been some hazy talk about Britain taking it to the
World Court. It will be a straightforward battle of wills
between Mr. Lee's Democrats and Governor Tung to see who
will blink first.
You can place your bets. Beijing has already hedged its
by promising that there will be fresh elections in a year. A
reasonable bet would be that by five minutes past midnight
there will be some role swapping. The shadow legislature
will become the official one and the official one the shadow
one. But Mr. Tung will not move to close it down, rather to
sideline it as much as possible, arguing to his Chinese
masters that he has already won their approval for
tolerating protests and that they shouldn't risk alienating
the professional middle class who will choose to make use of
their foreign passports if Hong Kong's atmospherics become
unpleasant.
But then in a year at election time the Democrats will
find that they are once again in a strong position. Beijing
will doubtless want to keep the number of fully elected
seats under their already announced limit of 50%. The
Democrats will push for 100%, offering as their concession a
willingness to dissolve their shadow legislature.
Willy-nilly, Governor Tung will find that he has the job of
trying to bridge the divide. But unless Beijing has the
stomach for another Tiananman Square, which it does not, Mr.
Tung will be allowed to negotiate a compromise. My hunch is
that it won't be too unfavorable to the Democrats.
June 4, 1997,
LONDON
Copyright © 1997 By JONATHAN POWER
Note: I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172
and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
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