Hong Kong's
First Elections
Since China Took Over
(On Sunday, May 24th)
By JONATHAN POWER
LONDON--Almost a year after the
British left Hong Kong this self-contained part of China--
the Special Administrative Region to be precise--goes to the
polls. Against the din of India's nuclear explosion, the
slow, but probably sure, toppling of Sukarno in Indonesia
and the economic crisis in east Asia (which is now spilling
over into Hong Kong) the question of how much democracy is
going to be allowed to be practised in Hong Kong seems to be
on everyone's back-burner. Even the people of Hong Kong, who
not that long ago came out on the streets en masse (one
million out of a population of six million) to protest the
killings in Tiananman Square, seem subdued- -or
resigned.
Perhaps this is a good sign. The
transition from British to Chinese rule has gone not with a
bang but a whimper in large measure because Beijing has been
extraordinarily sensitive about not rocking the boat once
the union jack was run down last June. It sure rocked the
boat in the years just before that but, arguably, that was
because Hong Kong's last British governor, Chris Patten,
decided to whip up the storm waves first. He was determined,
in the short five years of his tenure, to do what the
British had inexcusably failed to do in their previous 132
years of rule, make it a viable democracy.
Perhaps, as time passes, historians
will come to judge Patten's battle as no more than shots
across the bow of a big ship with its own speed. After all,
they will say, Beijing all along accepted that Hong Kong
will evolve into a one person one vote democracy. By the
year 2007, less than a decade away now, Beijing has promised
that half the seats in the legislature will be directly
elected and there will also be then direct elections of the
chief executive. Patten wanted to accelerate this and for a
brief two year period he managed to give democratic
participation a big push forward. But Beijing on taking
power did what it had forewarned and rolled back the reforms
to match the original timetable. Thus on Sunday there will
be elections, but of modest proportions, for a legislature
with only 20 of the 60 seats up for direct vote.
At this point it is impossible to
divine Beijing's democratic intentions, whether it will slow
down or even speed up this timetable. It has got away with
its rollback policy without sizeable street protests or that
much outside concern. If no one outside, not London nor
Washington nor Asia's democracies, has the spine for a real
fight over the pace of democracy in Hong Kong then it is
perhaps understandable that the ex-colony's democracy
activists feel they've had the wind taken out of their
sails.
Beijing, to boot, has been rather
clever. It has not visibly intervened in Hong Kong's
affairs. The press is still free. Nothing has been shut
down; no editors summarily fired. The bill of rights remains
in force. The rule of law, an essential ingredient in Hong
Kong's economic success, has not been tampered with.
Corruption of the kind where the sons and daughters of the
Chinese communist hierarchy would get inside deals in Hong
Kong, a much feared scenario, has not come to pass. Only the
move to protect some Chinese state bodies from Hong Kong
laws--such as exempting the Xinhua press agency from a civil
case on privacy--has provided grist for the repression mill,
and that's not much given Beijing's long-standing policy of
quarantining Hong Kong's liberalism from infecting mainland
institutions. Beijing has always feared Hong Kong might
become a wooden horse.
On balance, it seems Beijing has made
its peace with its own slogan, demanding as it is, "one
country, two systems". Certainly, the present attitude seems
light years away from the antagonism of the late Deng
Xiaoping, China's paramount leader who told his negociators
"watch the British, lest they abscond with the capital". Not
only have the Chinese found the British had not stolen the
family silver, they had in fact bequeathed a territory that
was in full running order--the world's third most important
financial centre, the world's biggest container port and the
generator of 60-80% of the foreign capital that enters
China, not to mention a level of educational achievement and
social well-being that compares favourably with western
Europe.
Moreover, long-term self-interest
dictates Beijing's solicitous behaviour. Beyond Hong Kong is
Taiwan, the ultimate reunification quest. Now China can tell
Taiwan that it has nothing to fear--even a fully developed
democracy could be absorbed respectfully and
peacefully.
All this suggests that the
powers-that-be in Communist China feel relaxed about being
relaxed. Which is maybe why, once this election is over, if
the democrats push for Hong Kong to be as democratic as
Taiwan, sooner rather than later, they could surprise
themselves and find the door pushes open.
May 20, 1998,
LONDON
Copyright © 1998 By JONATHAN POWER
Note: I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172
and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
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