Nigeria's election
By
Jonathan
Power
TFF
Associate since 1991
Comments directly to
JonatPower@aol.com
April 19, 2007
LONDON - So far so reasonably good. As Africa’s
most populous nation completes the voting for its gubernatorial positions
the reports of some thugs stealing the voting slips in the delta, some
intimidation elsewhere, and the late arrival of the ballot papers in quite
a few places suggest that that is not bad for an underdeveloped country
of 160, 000 million people, which besides boasting more than its fair
share of bad roads, horrendous slums and severe income differentials has
behind it a history of civil war, military coups and only today holds
an election where eight years of democracy, presided over by Olusegun
Obasanjo, will give way to another popularly chosen leader to be elected
this weekend. Or am I an optimist?
Nigeria gets a bad press. Only one major western paper, the Financial
Times, maintains a full time correspondent there. The New York Times wrote
its curtain raiser on the election a month ago from the safe haven of
Senegal. CNN and Vanity Fair have had a field day persuading the gun men
of the oil rich delta to allow them to follow them around whilst they
steal oil, buy speed boats and military hardware and pull off the trick
that terrorists do everywhere too often, of convincing the press that
power grows out of the barrel of a gun.
It doesn’t. And neither does electoral violence that kills for 20-70
people (take your pick on the estimates) in one of the world’s largest
countries mean the end is nigh.
So far the only surprise in the first part of the election is that the
ruling People’s Democratic Party has done so well. After visiting
the country almost every year during the tenure of Obasanjo I had become
convinced that his popularity was on a steady decline. Obasanjo’s
reforms have been mainly in the macro arena, which at this stage have
done little or nothing for the average person- unemployment and crime
are up, schools and clinics are even more run down, electricity supplies
are deteriorating. The malaise is so deep rooted that Nigerians’
traditional cynicism about the self-interest of the political class has
plumbed new depths. Despite Obasanjo’s rather effective campaign
against corruption many of those I interviewed believe Obasanjo himself
is corrupt. Even his decision to ask the prosecuting agency, the Economic
and Financial Crimes Commission, to investigate his own economic assets,
has not dampened the talk. I have read the detailed report on its detailed
investigation- in which, for example, they asked Interpol to run a world
wide check on his credit card activities, in which it came up with zilch-
and am convinced of his integrity.
The reforms have been painful. Two successive finance ministers- both
women- have kicked hard against the old rubrics. They have pruned the
bureaucracy, privatised, rooted out corruption, paid off or won relief
for Nigeria’s enormous debt overhang. Reserves now stand at $41
billion and foreign investment is increasing significantly. The airports
and docks are barely recognizable from the chaotic state of eight years
ago. According to the IMF the country is now well on the road to repeating
the Asian miracle of the 1980s. Economic growth regularly hits 7%. While
the oil sector has been hit by the violence of the delta, the non-oil
sector has grown even better at 8%. Obasanjo told me, “If we had
no oil we would be going just as fast, without all the trouble oil brings.”
Obviously the political campaigning has had some effect in convincing
voters that the government has laid some good foundations that will lead
not just to continued economic growth but more employment and better schools,
roads and clinics. Obasanjo, who secretly coveted a third term, but was
outmanoeuvred by Congress, has cleverly boosted as his successor a man
opposite to him in almost every imaginable way. Obasanjo is a fervent
Christian from the south. Umar Yar’Adua is a fervent Muslim, from
the north. Obasanjo is charismatic, worldly wise and loves to dress in
flowing robes. Yar’Adua is softly spoken, shy, provincial (he has
only travelled abroad three times- twice for the hajj and once for a quick
health check up in Germany) and dresses in a simple smock and sandals.
He has a reputation for being one of the few governors untainted by corruption.
One of the important legacies of Obasanjo is that he has managed to quieten
down the violent Muslim/Christian clashes that before him and in his first
couple of years were tearing the country apart. Yar’Adua’s
attitude bodes well for the future. “All religions are corrupted,”
he told me, “ but all religions are about love, kindness, justice
and tolerance.”
Right now it looks as if he will be Nigeria’s next president.
Copyright © 2007 Jonathan
Power
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Jonathan Power can be
reached by phone +44 7785 351172
and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
Jonathan
Power
2007 Book
Conundrums
of Humanity
The Quest for Global Justice
“Conundrums
of Humanity” poses eleven questions for our future progress, ranging
from “Can we diminish War?” to “How far and fast can
we push forward the frontiers of Human Rights?” to “Will
China dominate the century?”
The answers to these questions, the author believes, growing out of
his long experience as a foreign correspondent and columnist for the
International Herald Tribune, are largely positive ones, despite the
hurdles yet to be overcome. Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, London, 2007.
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