Press misinformation
on
China's military power
By
Jonathan
Power
TFF
Associate since 1991
Comments directly to
JonatPower@aol.com
May 31, 2007
LONDON - “U.S. fears over China long-range missiles”,
ran The Financial Times’ front page headline last week and an eight
column spread rammed the message home, that Washington is becoming worried
that China is deploying mobile land and sea-base missiles that have the
range to hit the U.S.. How is it that an otherwise sober newspaper chooses
to make ballyhoo out of old news, and misleading news at that? Other papers
chose not to address the subject in detail, apart from the Washington
Post, which a day before ran a short story on page 17, noting that Congress
was about to receive the administration’s annual report on China’s
military power. But is also observed that “China’s current
ability to sustain military power over long distances is limited.”
The military-industrial complex is one thing. At least we know what it
is. But the military-academic-journalistic complex is another. We don’t
know what it is or how exactly is works, except that Pentagon contracts
for universities are ubiquitous and “freebies” for journalists,
even if it is merely an all expenses paid trip to a prestigious conference,
are an art form for the organisers. Besides, most newspapers are riven
in their security and military affairs departments with a macho culture-
how rare it is for a woman to be writing about the critical security issues
of the day. And how rare it is for a paper, as did the New York Times
after the Iraq invasion went bad, to admit that it did a inadequate job
of reporting the war’s run up. How rare is it too for a senior politician
to criticise television reporting, as does former U.S. vice president,
Al Gore in his new book. “If it bleeds it leads, if it thinks, it
stinks”, he says of the networks’ cynical maxims. Or for former
West German chancellor, Helmut Schmidt, to say, “It is very difficult
as a reader or consumer of television to distinguish by one’s own
judgement what is led by [lobbying] interests and what is led by rational
conclusion.”
In July 2005 the Pentagon released a similar alarmist report to Congress,
arguing that China has been raising its defence budget and modernizing
its military. But the truth is in recent decades China’s relative
military power has actually declined. Its military effort peaked in 1971
at the end of the Cold War. From then on until rather recently deep cuts
in military expenditure were the order of the day. It has reduced its
army from five million to two. As for modernizing it is procuring new
weapons at a far slower rate than the old ones wear out.
For many decades China’s airforce was the world’s largest.
But today it has shrunk and more than a thousand (nearly half) of its
combat aircraft are types long considered obsolete by other major air
forces. Even Taiwan outnumbers China two to one in forth generation fighters.
As for China’s navy, it is remarkably small.
The press often, as does the Pentagon, highlights China’s missile
threat to Taiwan, reporting that it now has over 750 missiles pointing
at the offshore island. But it has so few launchers it could only launch
100 at a time. Moreover, they are relatively inaccurate, easy to intercept
and only a threat to cities not to military targets. Taiwan, with its
superior attack aircraft, could easily win an air war, even if some small
parts of its major cities were destroyed by a missile attack. No wonder
that the Taiwanese legislature keeps balking at legislation to finance
the up to date military equipment that the Pentagon keeps telling it it
must buy.
China would have to divert vast sums from economic
development to defence if it wanted to even begin to catch up with the
U.S.. And the U.S. would see it coming, giving it ample time to match
it. Neither is going to happen. China is increasingly tied to the American
economy and Taiwan is the source of much of its foreign investment and
high tech expertise. It would not make sense to China’s present
leadership to push for a rapid increase in defence spending when the need
is not apparent, the opportunities for military play so few and far between
and calls on government spending for development and social purposes so
intense. It is most unlikely that a country embarking on adding 10,000
kilometres of railway lines, including 2000 kilometres capable of taking
300 kilometres an hour German trains, is much interested in the unsettling
and economically debilitating prospects of war.
Walter Lippmann reminded us that news and truth are not the same thing.
“The function of news is to signalise an event; the function of
truth is bring to light the hidden facts.” The press has to keep
relearning this piece of wisdom.
Copyright © 2007 Jonathan
Power
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Jonathan Power can be
reached by phone +44 7785 351172
and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
Jonathan
Power
2007 Book
Conundrums
of Humanity
The Quest for Global Justice
“Conundrums
of Humanity” poses eleven questions for our future progress, ranging
from “Can we diminish War?” to “How far and fast can
we push forward the frontiers of Human Rights?” to “Will
China dominate the century?”
The answers to these questions, the author believes, growing out of
his long experience as a foreign correspondent and columnist for the
International Herald Tribune, are largely positive ones, despite the
hurdles yet to be overcome. Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, London, 2007.
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