Neither the
War Nor Ending it Will Solve the Problem of
Kosovo
By JONATHAN
POWER
June 9, 1999
LONDON- This was (or still is?) the sixth war that
affected the destiny of Kosovo this century. The first was
in 1912. Serbia, along with Montenegro, Greece and Bulgaria
divided up the remains of the Balkan part of the
disintegrating Ottoman Empire. Then the Serbian army, living
out the national quest, stormed into Kosovo.
The second was in 1915 when the Serbs were chased out of
Kosovo by the Austro-Hungarians and the Germans, with the
Albanians of Kosovo taking their sweet revenge.
The third was in 1918 at the end of the First World War when
the Serbs swept back and, after taking their own revenge,
they implanted- -Israel like--Serbian settlements inside
Kosovo.
The fourth was in 1941 when the Italians fighting on
Hitler's side captured Kosovo and incorporated it into
Italian-ruled Greater Albania.
The fifth was the victory of Tito against the Nazis and
the Italians in 1945, which led to the re-incorporation of
Kosovo into Serbia, despite a promise to allow a future
communist Kosovo to become part of Albania. (War has always
been an unusually cruel business in the Balkans. Doubters of
this should read the account of Yugoslavia's supposed
"Renaissance Man", Milovan Djilas, much feted in Western
literary circles, who describes his sheer enjoyment at
massacring Italian troops.)
Why on earth Clinton, Blair et al should think the 6th
war with its messy, muddled outcome will solve anything
stretches credulity.
Amazingly, having disrupted and destroyed much of the
infrastructure of the whole region, they want a simple
return to the status quo ante. They are prepared to
re-affirm that the Albanian-majority province should live
under Serbian rule, albeit with a measure of autonomy. They
want to re-confirm the boundaries of Kosovo. And they want
to disarm the Albanian guerrillas and, indeed, ensure, by
occupying the territory with peace-keeping troops, the
present arrangements could last until kingdom come, if
necessary.
Clinton, Blair, Schroeder are all presiding over
countries that went to war twice this century, dragging the
rest of the world with them. In neither case did it make
sense in terms of lives lost and cities destroyed but the
cumulative effect had a positive outcome-- boundary
problems, where country demarcation lines did not coincide
with ethnicity, were effectively sorted out. If they hadn't
been, just to take one of many possible examples, a Poland
of today existing within the ethnic proportions of 1939
would certainly be racked with violent Polish nationalism
and guerrilla ethnic-based secessionist movements.
The Balkans is the one remaining part of Europe--apart
from Ireland and the Basque country--where boundary lines
are actively contested. If there is one lesson from the
century's great European wars it is that there will be no
real peace until they are re-drawn and better coincide with
the ethnic makeup of the region. (Ditto for Africa too.) For
the West to have gone to war to preserve the status quo is
not very clever.
If ever there is a time to get this right, once and for
all, this is surely it. The post-conflict situation (if
that's what it temporarily is) lends itself to creative map
drawing.
Once the Nato-Russian peace plan is implemented it is
likely that there will be a de facto Russian sector (where
the small--only 10%--Serbian population is concentrated) and
a de-facto Nato one (where the Albanians will chose to
live).
This natural division will be inevitably reinforced by
the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) freedom fighters who will
want to use the cover given them by the presence of Nato
troops to ensure the ethnic purity of the Albanian-populated
part of Kosovo. Remnants of the Serb population will be
encouraged to flee into their sector or Serbia proper. The
peace agreement calls for disarmament of the KLA, but we
know from the Northern Ireland Good Friday peace deal this
is very hard to effect.
The West should wake up: the war in Kosovo is just the
latest act in a territorial conflict going back 1,300 years.
Even a century doesn't provide the true historical depth.
The wolf is not going to lie down with the lamb. The
solution for ex-Yugoslavia, as for the rest of Europe, is
separate nation states with clear and overwhelming ethnic
majorities. The Kosovars, both in fairness and for a lasting
peace, must now be allowed to become part of a Greater
Albania. Kosovo should be partitioned. To placate the Serbs,
Serbia should be allowed to incorporate the Serbian parts of
Bosnia.
That leaves a difficult question, what to do about
neighbouring Macedonia, which has a sizeable but minority
(22%) Albanian population? At the moment Macedonia is
relatively well governed and stable. So perhaps this is the
right moment for rational discussion about partition--with
the Slav majority joining up with Bulgaria and the Albanians
with Albania.
The Balkan map never made sense. It certainly never made
peace. This is as good a time as ever has presented itself
to try and get it right.
.
Copyright © 1999 By JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172 and e-mail:
JonatPower@aol.com
|