Hard
Decisions for Indonesia's Mrs Megawati After East Timor's
Referendum
By JONATHAN
POWER
Sept. 1, 1999
LONDON- The results of East Timor's referendum on its
future will not be available until September 7th but, given
the high turn out, most observers seem to be concluding that
the electorate will reject the offer of autonomy offered by
Indonesian president, B.J. Habibie. President Habibie has
said that in this case Indonesia will give the territory
independence. Inevitably, indeed it has already started,
this is going to lead to more violence within East Timor,
since the militias, with their close ties to the Indonesian
armed forces, oppose breaking the Indonesian link, and they
are well armed and ruthless to boot. This is going to tear
at the heart of Indonesia just as it is about to embark on
an historic transition from a president chosen by a
self-selected cabal to one picked by ballot by an elected
constitutional assembly.
Thus, it is strange, to say the least, to see a triple
anachronism in play in post dictatorship Indonesian politics
today, in the persona of Mrs Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter
of the late dictator Sukarno, deposed in 1967. Mrs Megawati,
after her success in the recent assembly elections, is the
probable front runner to become the new elected president of
Indonesia.
The first anachronism would be for a modern democratic
government to have as its central concern on day one an
issue so divisive and so politically debilitating (for
central it would surely become, pushing economic reform,
political transparency, the plight of the poor and all the
other pressing issues to the side). It would throw away in
an instance all the good will the rest of the world is ready
to shower on the new president.
The second anachronism would be to be party to a vicious
civil war, in an age when perpetuating civil war is the low
road to the International War Crimes Court. By the year the
international community is becoming less tolerant of those
who stir the waters of internal divisions. Yet Indonesia,
this referendum held, could only forestall a a campaign of
non-cooperation leading perhaps to a unililateral
declaration of independence in East Timor by backing, as
part of the army has done to a degree at the moment, the
no-holds barred militias who wish to see the territory
remain part of Indonesia.
The third anachronism would be for Mrs Megawati, in
effect, to rewind the colonial clock. On gaining
independence from Holland in 1949, the new state of
Indonesia, then an underdeveloped backwater yet to begin the
fast rise that would make it one of Asia's most powerful
nations, embarked on a long battle to consolidate its hold
over the vast archipelego that bears its name, by driving
out the Dutch from their last major foothold, Western New
Guinea. By a judicious mixture of domestic agitation,
international lobbying and military moves they finally in
1962 succeeded in prising the possession away from the
fading European power. There were many in Jakarta who argued
then that Indonesia should make a bid to take East Timor, a
Portuguese colony, that occupied half of an island that was
already Indonesian. Yet wisdom prevailed in the inner
circles of the dictator Sukarno. Sukarno realised that with
Western New Guinea Indonesia had the strong case that it was
the successor state to the Netherlands East Indies and that
therefore the territory was an integral part of its
inheritance. Sukarno was not about to weaken Indonesia's
case by arguing that East Timor was included in this
campaign to eliminate colonial administrative
boundaries.
Later after Suharto had overthrown Sukarno, seized with
hubris at the opportunity presented by the disaray in
Portugal in the wake of its revolution, Indonesia's second
dictator put legalisms and international opinion on one
side. In 1975 Indonesia invaded East Timor. But all along
there were intimates of the president who privately thought
Suharto had made a mistake.
Is Mrs Megawati, in what may be Indonesia's greatest
opportunity in a lifetime, going to take the foolhardy step
of opposing independence in the face of a clear result in
this referendum? It would be an immense error of political
judgement. After the great financial crash of two years ago
Indonesia is now beginning to recover its economic stride.
The impact of the crisis has not been as bad as once was
feared. Business confidence is returning surprisingly fast.
The poor who lost out more than anyone else have not been
totally devastated as at one time looked likely. Indonesia's
remarkable thirty year effort to produce fast economic
growth while being able to lift a large number of poor out
of poverty- a rare occurence in the Third World- should now
continue where it left off. If Indonesia concentrates its
energies on this it will leave both China and India well
behind, preoccupied as these two countries are with the
distractions of seeking great power status and, in the
latter's case, in being bogged down in the rigid political
rut of its adherence to Leninist rule.
The last thing the new Indonesia needs is a major
distraction from this core task. It will have enough on its
plate with the upheavals that are to some extent inevitable
as the old dictatorial system gives way to democratic
governance.
Of course there will be shibboleths to be laid. If East
Timor goes, won't Aceh too, where separatists are creating
serious disturbances? There is really no analogy. Aceh is
part of the territory that once was the Netherland
Indies.
This is where political leadership counts, to clearly
educate the electorate on the true state of affairs.
President Habibie, to nearly everyone's surprise, seems to
understand this. But does Mrs Megawati? If she doesn't then,
tragically, the arrival of full democracy in Indonesia may
well set the country back twenty years.
Copyright © 1999 By JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by phone +44 385 351172 and e-mail:
JonatPower@aol.com
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