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After
America, whither democracy?
By JONATHAN
POWER
December, 2000
LONDON - George Bush, the victor of an imperfect
presidential election, looks out on a world that has
become increasingly democratic the last decade and shows
all the characteristics of becoming more so. But the less
than straightforward way that Bush won and, in
particular, how obvious it became that U.S. courts were
political creatures, raises the profound worry that this
will rub off on many parts of the world, which may now be
democratic but which are immaturely so. We won't know the
answer to that for some while but, meanwhile, reported
recently in a new study published by Freedom House, an
American organization that monitors trends in democracy,
is some heartening evidence that we are in the midst of
an era of historic progress.
First, it has become apparent that ethnic warfare, a
major impediment since the demise of the Cold War to the
further spread of democracy, is decreasing. Second, the
evidence that political freedom enhances the process of
economic development is becoming clearer with each new
study.
Freedom House reports that a decade-long trend of
positive, incremental gains in democracy and human rights
continued in the year 2000. Yugoslavia and Mexico were
the most significant new entrants to the democracy club,
but there were another eight countries that also chose
democracy as their political system, bringing the total
number of democracies in the world to120, encompassing
60% of the world's population.
Not all are perfectly "free", measured by Freedom
House's tough criteria. The number of truly "free"
countries, enjoying a wide range of rights is 86 with
40.7% of the world's people. (And even this is arguably
too loose a definition, as is clear in the wake of the
U.S. election.)
At the other end of the spectrum, the number of
countries living under authoritarian dictatorships is 47,
with 35.5% of the world's people. But half of these live
in China and another large portion in Africa. Take away
those two parts of the world and the global picture looks
even rosier. In between there are 59 countries that
Freedom House concludes are "partly free", countries like
Nigeria, Russia or Turkey that have elections but where
there are constraints on freedom, either because of
military pressure, police violence, ineffectual legal
systems or limits on freedom of expression. To get the
full impact of this state of progress one must compare
today's world with the early years of the last century
when no one lived in a country with fully competitive
multiparty politics complete with universal suffrage. Or
even fifty years ago when there were only 22 functioning
democracies.
A good deal of the progress of the last decade has
been made in the face of the media's obsession with
ethnic warfare that has worked to convince a gullible
public that the world was spinning out of control, and
that western nations in particular were in danger of
being drawn increasingly into a vortex of bloody civil
wars.
In fact, as one investigation after another has shown,
the impression of a growing number of inter-ethnic
conflicts is considerably exaggerated. Nevertheless, it
is true that democracy stands a greater chance of success
in mono-ethnic countries. Freedom House research shows
that 75% of "free" countries have a dominant ethnic
majority. In "partly free" countries 58% are ethnically
divided and among the "not free" states it is 47%. In
short, a state with a dominant ethnic group is well over
three times more likely to be free than a multiethnic
state.
For all that it must be said there are numerous
examples of successful multi-ethnic societies and with
the diminution of ethnic conflict the hope must be for
more. For years economists like Amartya Sen, the Nobel
laureate for economics, have suggested that "development
is freedom", that economic progress is promoted by
greater levels of political freedom.
It is an argument that Amnesty International's
secretary-general, Pierre Sane, has deployed face to face
with South Korea's President Kim Dae Jung in an effort to
persuade this democratically elected president to free
all the political prisoners he inherited. Yet the
evidence until now, if not quite anecdotal, has been just
one study by a former member of the World Bank.
But today Freedom House has broken new territory.
After extensive research it concludes that "there is a
high and statistically significant correlation between
the level of political freedom as measured by Freedom
House and economic freedom as measured by the Wall
Street/Heritage Foundation survey."
This effectively answers the old conundrum whether the
large number of prosperous countries are free in
consequence of their prosperity and development or
whether prosperity is a consequence of basic political
and civic freedoms. Economic growth is certainly possible
in an unfree political culture but political freedom
accelerates it. Repressive countries with high and
sustained economic growth rates, such as China, are the
exception rather than the rule.
If the present course can be continued then, as
political liberty spreads its tentacles further, we
should see an even greater surge in economic progress and
one, that because it is tempered increasingly by
democratic impulses, is more equitable than the economic
growth of old. It will also work to lessen ethnic strife,
and that, in turn, will produce greater economic
benefits.
The last fifty years have seen tremendous progress;
the last ten have seen a great acceleration. The next ten
should produce even more progress. But will this election
in the world's most influential country undo the good
work?
I can be reached by phone +44
7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com.
I wish my readers a Merry
Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Copyright © 2000 By
JONATHAN POWER
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