The
danger of an
Israeli attack
on Iran
By
Jonathan
Power
TFF Associate
since 1991
Comments to JonatPower@aol.com
March 10, 2005
LONDON - How is the ordinary mortal
able to make up his mind on whether Iran is developing
nuclear weapons or not, and if so whether this poses a
serious threat to Israel or other neighbors? After all,
as Hans Blix, the UN's former chief nuclear weapons'
inspector, famously said about Iraq's supposed nuclear
armory, there was nothing to stop Saddam Hussein hanging
up a sign "Beware of the dog", even if there was no dog.
Moreover, even if Iran does have or almost have the
capability to build a few nuclear weapons who would they
use them against in a real life situation, as opposed to
the make believe scenarios that game playing strategists
love to create? Against Israel, Europe or the U.S.? But
these putative antagonists all have enough submarines,
hardened silos and nuclear missiles to ensure a second
strike ability that would wipe Iran off the face of the
planet.
Common sense suggests we should get
on with our jobs, rearing our families and reading some
good novels to take our mind off the situation, and
forget about it. Alas, this is not how the world ticks.
Some of its best minds, both in Iran and outside, are
engaged in a do or die struggle to outwit the other on
the subtleties of these questions. Not least, political
passions are not as rational as some of us would like to
think.
Iran has become the pivot of
Washington's attentions and not North Korea for one very
good reason: North Korea's foreign policy is next to
passive whilst Iran's is actively anti- Israel.
Unsurprisingly, the number of important voices in Israel
and the U.S. who argue for preventive strikes against
Iran's nuclear installations has grown significantly the
last twelve months. Even though many thoughtful analysts
accept that Iran's original motive for wanting nuclear
weapons is defensive and was probably triggered in the
first place by Iraq's supposed capabilities, Iranian
self-justification has slid easily into the perceived
need to deter the U.S. with its 25-year economic crusade
against Iran. But just as the priorities have changed
from Iraq to the U.S., so can they change again- in
Israel's direction. Even if popular pressur e one day
modifies the Iranian government's internal rigidity,
actual possession of nuclear weapons will inevitably
embolden its foreign policy and thus act as an influence
on Israel's Arab neighbors to be less accommodating.
Moreover, it will probably persuade Saudi Arabia, Egypt
and Syria to become nuclear weapons' states
themselves.
Ephraim Kam of the Jaffee Center
for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University has recently
written that Israel, unlike with its attack on the Iraqi
nuclear reactor in 1981, this time cannot attack Iran
alone. It must be a combined operation with the U.S., not
least because of the American and British presence on the
ground in the region and the danger of an inadvertent
clash with their forces on the one hand and the danger of
Iranian retaliation against these forces on the other.
Even then, he argues, the chances of total success, given
the ability of Iran to hide deep underground much of its
nuclear industry and given the widespread support its
government has across the domestic political spectrum on
this issue, it will be next to impossible to squelch once
and for all the Iranian nuclear que st.
Still, as George Perkovich of the
Carnegie Endowment reports, quoting an Israeli official,
"if you cannot absoutely live with something, then you
have to act. The consequences may be horrible, but they
will come later. The consequences of not acting are
intolerable immediately, so you have to act and live
another day to deal with what comes next."
As the clocks tick toward midnight
it is not surprising that, belatedly, Washington has
indicated it that it is behind the European Union's
efforts to persuade Iran to forgo the nuclear weapons'
option, using carrots more than sticks. (Even President
George W. Bush can see the complexities of an attack on
Iran.)
One wishes the joint effort well.
But it is reasonable to wonder if it will have much
effect unless the Arab states and Israel also join this
cause. Now that Saddam is defeated, Israel must seriously
consider foregoing its nuclear weapons as part of a grand
bargain with Iran. And the other Arab states, which are
covertly developing the possibility of going nuclear,
must open up and renounce the effort as Libya recently
did.
That is a big apple to bite and
will demand some ingenious, combined Western diplomacy.
But present day piecemeal bites come up against a hard
core of intractable problems- and the very real danger
that Israel, feeling time is working against it, may lash
out with its own attack and damn the
consequences.
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Copyright © 2005 By
JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by
phone +44 7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
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