Perhaps
the end of the
road for Lula in Brazil
By
Jonathan
Power
TFF Associate
since 1991
Comments to JonatPower@aol.com
January 21, 2006
SAO PAOLO - For the best part of
thirty years the President of Brazil, Luis Inácio
da Silva, "Lula", has been a rising star in the Brazilian
firmament. From the days when he led the metalworkers of
the car industry of Sao Paulo out on a strike against the
military government he has been a darling of the workers,
the Catholic Church, and the liberals. In those early
days Chancellor Helmut Schmidt of Germany and Prime
Minister Adolfo Suarez of Spain came to seek him out,
partly to bolster his stature against the generals and
partly to attempt to discern where mighty Brazil, then
far ahead of China and India, might be
heading.
I found him at the time living in a
small worker's house in one of those less than
awe-inspiring suburbs on the outskirts of this immense,
smog-filled, city of over 11 million. He was, as I
discovered when interviewing him for the International
Herald Tribune, wise beyond his years. At the age of 34
he dealt with my probing about the attractions of Marxism
and violent revolution with intelligent disdain and
concluded by observing, "There is no point whatsoever in
demanding unrealistic things. I think it is better to go
forward one millimetre, but one down to earth millimetre,
knowing that we won't have to go two millimetres backward
later on."
Soon after he was imprisoned by the
military but emerged as the regime liberalised, making
way eventually for democracy, as the leader of a fast
growing new political movement, the Workers' Party. Three
years ago Lula finally won the presidency and his
supporters believed the moment of pure, untarnished,
selfless government had begun. The poor in a country that
is the world's ninth economic power, but has the worst
distribution of income among major developing nations,
would finally find their reward. Lula, himself growing up
in destitution, promised, launching his "zero hunger"
campaign, that every family would be fed adequately every
single day.
Life is modern day politics in a
major industrial power with the capital markets watching
one's very move is never so straightforward. The day that
Lula became president was the day he had to hang up the
hat of his militant reforming zeal.
For 25 years Lula on the outside of
the political establishment had been the major force for
social change bringing the pressure of his oratory,
charismatic leadership and political muscle on government
of various political hues to engage in social reform.
Gradually the income distribution of Brazil has improved.
Schools and health clinics have been built in the poorer
areas.
But Lula in power has become a
different persona, to the anguish of many of his
supporters. On the one side he has pursued economic and
fiscal policies of the most conservative type. This is
well to the good, as it has saved Brazil from going
through another bout of skyrocketing inflation and loss
of investor confidence. The economy is stable, exports
are zooming, inflation is down and interest rates are
falling. Economic growth is steady, at around 3-3.5%,
although this is disappointing given the other benign
factors.
Lula, the social reformer has taken
second place. His "Bolsa Família" has extended
cash transfers to millions of the poorest - as long as
they send their children to school - but it is merely an
upgraded version of the programme of his predecessor,
Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Even more disillusioning is that
Lula's government has become immersed in two successive
scandals, involving illegal contributions to the Workers'
Party in return for favors and, worse, the buying of
votes in Congress. Even if, as he claims, Lula wasn't
involved in these shenanigans, he should have known, and
perhaps did know, what his trusted chief of staff who was
forced to resign was up to. This has lost Lula his
important middle class support and perhaps doomed his
presidency.
A poll to be published this week
will show that José Serra, now mayor of Sao Paulo,
will beat him comfortably in October's election. Serra, a
close political ally of Cardoso and his former highly
successful minister of health, is a policy wonk and a
hard driven, effective, administrator. He told me that he
has the credibility with the international financial
community that Lula had to earn the hard way. This, he
says, " will enable me to be less orthodox and to drive
the rate of economic growth above 5%." He will also, he
maintains, as he has in Sao Paulo, "cut out the enormous
waste of Lula's mal-administered government and get
results that will immediately benefit poorer
people".
Serra, also a political opponent of
the generals who had to flee the country, is as
progressive in his social thought as is Lula. The
difference is he could deliver what Lula has only
promised.
Copyright © 2006 By
JONATHAN POWER
I can be reached by
phone +44 7785 351172 and e-mail: JonatPower@aol.com
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